Prime Picks: UFC 315 ‘Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship takes a trip back to Montreal up in the Great White North for the first time in over a decade, bringing with it just two Canadians on the main card—both of them underdogs. Based on betting lines, it could be an inconsistent night for the home fans. Join the UFC 315 edition of Prime Picks, where we finally come around to an admittedly tough-to-watch champion while remaining puzzled that the other titleholder on the bill now sits as an underdog.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Belal Muhammad (-177)

Say what you will about Muhammad outside the Octagon, but when the cage door closes, his game face is on. Time and time again, the Chicago native defied the odds and used his best weapon—his cardio—to grind foes into dust. While his finish rate of 25% means that this one will probably take a while to get there, it would be a tough thought experiment to try to recall the last time the Roufusport product appeared not just visibly fatigued but more worn out than his opponent. His style might not win any awards or bonuses, but its effectiveness can no longer be denied after he imposed that exact same game on Leon Edwards and shut him down. Against a pure striker with decent but not spectacular takedown defense, Muhammad can do exactly what he does best: suck the air out of the room for the fans and the fighter standing across from him.

In some ways like Khabib Nurmagomedov, it is the dogged determination of Muhammad that truly makes him shine. If he does not land his first takedown, no big deal. If the second is stuffed, who cares? He has more coming than most can handle, employing a conveyer belt of pressure, pace and relentlessness that makes the best of them wilt. Few fighters embody the embrace-the-grind mentality any better than the champion who wants you to remember his name. He is not there to make fans, win hearts and minds or wow the UFC brass. When the challenger’s best path to victory lays in a puncher’s chance—granted, Jack Della Maddalena is an exceptional puncher with small wrecking balls for fists—the odds in his favor at -177 make cash register sounds ring in bettors’ minds. If one wants to sweeten the pot, couple it with the over of 1.5 rounds to squeeze just a bit more juice out of this headliner.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Manon Fiorot (-122)

To the surprise of some, champion Valentina Shevchenko will be checking into her first title defense of her second flyweight reign as the underdog. She takes on a woman just two years her junior, so it is not as simple as the youth-versus-experience argument—as if Shevchenko were matched against Erin Blanchfield in her 20s. Shevchenko is a well-rounded fighter. While many declare that she is a kickboxer by trade, her best weapon most likely is her ground game. Fiorot is much more of the boxer with elite takedown defense, an archetype that Shevchenko has defeated more than once. At these odds, there are better options to pick at UFC 315.

It is more than likely that if Fiorot pulls it off to secure the title around her waist, the match will play out primarily on the feet. She tends to fire off high-volume salvos, not necessarily concerned that every strike lands as long as she scores something. Stuffing all three of Blanchfield’s takedowns attempts shows that the Frenchwoman has excellent defensive prowess, but few set up the grappling like “Bullet.” Even if Fiorot decides to shake things up and bring things to the mat on her own accord, Shevchenko is more than active off her back with a solid get-up game. It should also be noted that an inexplicable 10-8 round in favor of Alexa Grasso from typically excellent judge Mike Bell thwarted Shevchenko from earning her belt back in their rematch; she left little doubt in the trilogy bout as to how most of their matches would result. This likely had some influence on the lack of betting confidence in the champ, who is an unexpected underdog in the co-headliner.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Bruno Silva (+130)

When a fighter has his back against the wall, sometimes he opts out of a traditional game plan and chomps down on his gumshield to slug it out. Luckily for Silva, this is already his approach, as he finds himself on an unlikely four-fight skid that has seen him dissolve from a potential contender into a future GFL draftee in just a couple years. He battles fellow struggling striker Marc-Andre Barriault, who has dropped three straight. The difference in their defeats is stark and significant. While Silva has slowed to a crawl, Barriault has had his chin shattered by a heavy swinger in Joe Pyfer and submission artist in Dustin Stoltzfus. Even as Silva has faded, he has not needed smelling salts to go about the rest of his day, and it does not seem likely that the Canadian will be the one to find that button when Alex Pereira could not.

It is not sunshine and rainbows for the chin of the underdog, who has lost six of his last seven, as the frantic attack of Brendan Allen floored him ahead of the submission when they collided last year. Silva has lost six times in seven outings for a reason, mostly because his own work rate has fallen off a cliff. In every one of those defeats, Silva has been outstruck by a wide margin, a few times to the tune of around double what he offered. When he got past Brad Tavares, he did so by doing what he does best: punching him in the face. Silva said in an interview recently that he had surpassed some psychological issues that he believes held him back in recent performances. Now is as good a time as any for him to pull off a win and save his job.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Muhammad-Della Maddalena Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-750)

Benoit St. Denis-Kyle Prepolec Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-550)

Mike Malott (-163)

Total Odds: +116

Unless something goes horribly wrong—or right, for those writing play-by-play around 1 a.m. on the east coast—the main event is one that should take a while to get going. Muhammad’s inability to finish fights has already been highlighted, but more importantly, other than the Vicente Luque incident in 2016, his durability has rarely been in question. The rounds could be stretched higher, but in the unlikely event that Della Maddalena survives a tough round and change to come back and deck Muhammad, this hedge may save you from a night of total ruin. As for St. Denis-Prepolec, it is an irresistible force meeting a fairly movable object. St. Denis has never needed to involve the judges when prevailing, while the late-notice Canadian is no stranger to the knockout and may only have the gas tank for a round or so. These two will hammer home the parlay that starts off less risky than it seems.

It may all boil down to the Canadian might of Malott, a hype train so derailed that he comes in as a moderate favorite to Charlie Radtke—a man the UFC mistakenly thought was on a four-fight winning streak when in fact he had only won his last bout. As it pertains to strength of schedule, Malott is consistently at least one tier above his adversary, beating respectable names like Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles; the best victory for “Chuck Buffalo” may be his most recent one against a skidding Matthew Semelsberger. Radtke may be more focused on the crowd booing him than the Team Alpha Male product standing across from him. Unless Malott walks into something foolish, he has shown the all-around game that can get one over on the American.