Preview: UFC Nashville Prelims

Flyweights

Lauren Murphy (16-6, 8-6 UFC) vs. Eduarda Moura (11-1, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Moura (-700); Murphy (+500)

Just two weeks shy of her 42nd birthday and over two years after her last Octagon appearance, Murphy is back for one more go-round. “Lucky” is a questionable handle at this point, as the Alaskan veteran by way of Houston is being rolled out as a name opponent for Moura. Murphy’s 8-6 mark since coming over from Invicta Fighting Championships looks even better when taking into account that she is 7-3 at flyweight, a run that saw win five straight fights on her way to a shot at Valentina Shevchenko back in 2021.

The good news for Murphy is that while she is the oldest woman in the UFC, her game never ran on fast-twitch athleticism anyway and was thus likely to age somewhat gracefully. A large and powerfully built flyweight, Murphy compensates as best she can for her lack of hand and foot speed by throwing straight punches, usually in combination. Where she has always excelled is as a bully in the clinch, against the fence, where she can make the other woman carry her weight, nullify an opponent’s speed advantages, and look for opportunities to do damage and/or bring the fight to the ground, where she is a much better grappler than her one career win by sub would seem to imply. The women who have beaten Murphy at flyweight—Shevchenko, Jessica Andrade and the 2018 version of Sijara Eubanks—were simply better bullies than Murphy, and nimbler athletes to boot.

That spells bad news against Moura, who checks most of the same boxes as those three. While “Ronda” is already 31, she was a late starter in MMA and had not even appeared on Dana White's Contender Series yet at the time of Murphy’s last fight. Coming over from BJJ, she has a large frame for the division and is a plus athlete; her lone career loss came against a woman who is even more of one in Denise Gomes. Moura’s striking is a work in progress, but she has good natural power and decent defensive instincts. The betting line is wide here, but for good reason, as the places that are usually safe spots for Murphy do not figure to be so against a young, dynamic bruiser like Moura.

Murphy has always been an incredibly tough and durable competitor—look no further than the Shevchenko fight—so unless that has waned with the time off and inactivity, a finish is not likely, but Moura should be better everywhere. Expect Murphy to last all 15 minutes and for it to feel like much longer for everyone involved. The pick is Moura in a lopsided decision.



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